Pakistan is preparing for what experts warn could be one of its harshest winters in decades as the La Niña climate pattern reemerges, amplifying concerns about extreme cold, shifting rainfall, and worsening recovery challenges following last year’s devastating floods.
A new UN OCHA report, developed in coordination with the Intersector Coordination Group (ISCG), indicates that abnormal cooling of Pacific Ocean surface waters will significantly alter Pakistan’s seasonal weather. The effects are expected to include below-normal rainfall in northern Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Azad Jammu and Kashmir, and Gilgit-Baltistan, while southern Punjab, Sindh, and Balochistan may experience near-normal precipitation levels.
La Niña occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific drop below average, strengthening trade winds and redirecting tropical rainfall patterns. In South Asia, this typically leads to colder, drier winters and can intensify preceding monsoon rains. Experts warn that the ongoing cycle, combined with a negative Indian Ocean Dipole, could extend through late 2025, maintaining unstable weather conditions across Pakistan.
The UN report also highlights that flood-affected communities remain at severe risk. In provinces like Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Gilgit-Baltistan, the combination of cold weather, damaged infrastructure, and limited resources could exacerbate humanitarian challenges. The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) estimates that 1.2 million hectares of farmland in Punjab remain underwater, devastating rice, cotton, and sugarcane production. The loss of livestock, fodder, and agricultural tools continues to undermine food security and rural livelihoods.
Beyond agriculture, La Niña’s chilling influence poses mounting health risks. Prolonged exposure to cold, combined with stagnant floodwaters, raises the likelihood of cholera, dengue, malaria, and other waterborne or vector-borne diseases. According to humanitarian groups, more than 229,000 households remain without proper shelter, heightening vulnerability to extreme temperatures. Disruptions in health and education systems further slow recovery efforts.
Meteorologists caution that intensified trade winds in the Pacific are likely to sustain colder-than-usual conditions throughout Pakistan’s winter. The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has projected a 60 percent probability that La Niña will persist into December 2025, signaling prolonged climatic challenges ahead.
As Pakistan navigates the transition from emergency response to long-term recovery, the incoming cold wave underscores the urgency of renewed aid and preparedness. Relief agencies warn that resources are already stretched, urging international partners to provide fresh funding to help vulnerable communities withstand the coming months.
