The latest figures from the State Bank of Pakistan show a clear shift from the previous month’s $83 million surplus, raising questions about whether the recent stability can be sustained.

Data from the central bank indicates that the pressure has been building steadily. Between July and October, the current account deficit has expanded to $730 million. This marks a sharp rise of 256 percent compared to the same four-month period last year, underscoring the increasing burden on the national economy.

Economic analysts link this deterioration to the government’s decision to relax import restrictions, a move driven by commitments to the International Monetary Fund. While easing these controls helped restore supply chains and supported business activity, it also increased dollar outflows at a time when Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves remain limited.

Experts caution that the widening trade gap reflects both higher imports and stagnant export growth. Although Pakistan has taken steps to stabilize key sectors, the external account remains sensitive to fluctuations in global commodity prices, exchange rate pressures, and the pace of domestic economic recovery.

The IMF’s insistence on removing strict import curbs was aimed at restoring normal market functioning. However, the return to a deficit highlights the delicate balance policymakers must maintain between economic activity and external sustainability.

Economists warn that if the deficit continues to widen, it could complicate future negotiations with lenders, limit fiscal space, and place additional pressure on the rupee. They stress the need for stronger export growth, diversification of foreign inflows, and tighter management of non-essential imports to prevent further slippage.

As Pakistan navigates the remainder of the fiscal year, the current account will remain a critical indicator of economic health. The latest figures signal that despite temporary improvements, the path to external stability remains challenging.